“America’s Swing State” is just under five weeks away from the November 3 general election.
Once again, Pennsylvania voters play a major role in the makeup of government – both on the federal and statewide level. The Commonwealth has four crucial congressional races that will determine which party has majority control in U.S. House. The Keystone State has a gubernatorial race, as well as 25 state Senate and 203 state House contests that could lead to a Democratic trifecta for the first time since 1993.
We have seen polls from Franklin & Marshall College, as well as Quinnipiac and Siena Universities. And now we have the “first” prediction market election.
Prediction markets are exchange-traded platforms where participants buy and sell binary contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, such as elections, economic data, and sports. Popular platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have surged in volume.
In recent history, typical polling estimates have largely lacked precision in predicting election outcomes, which has not only caused uncertainty for American voters, but has also impacted campaign strategies, spending, and fundraising efforts. One intriguing aspect of traditional polling is the types of questions that are asked – the questions largely focus on asking individuals who they intend to vote for. However, they don’t always probe who voters think will win – regardless of who they want to win. In contrast, online betting markets allow individuals to wager money on who they expect to win, which may capture who individuals think will win in an especially salient manner.
Yes.
Online prediction/betting markets have already attracted nearly $200 million in wagers on the 2026 elections. But a more than half who identified themselves as likely midterm voters say these markets are bad for democracy, according to a new national survey of 1,000 U.S. adults commissioned by the Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions (PLEJ).
The poll found concern across party lines about the potential effects of election prediction markets on public understanding and trust, wrote Rick Hasen, the director of UCLA Law’s Safeguarding Democracy Project. Among likely 2026 midterm voters:
Confusion extends to what prediction market odds actually represent. Nearly four in 10 likely midterm voters believe that prediction market odds reflect either the number of votes currently counted, or official projections issued by state and local election officials. But the reality is different. Prediction market prices only reflect the activity and expectations of market participants – not votes cast, votes counted, or official election results.
Kalshi and Polymarket officials, for their part, contend that the activity is neither gambling nor a danger to elections or democracy.
It is, they say, barely different from people who trade stocks, bonds or commodities ahead of an election to protect themselves against how the eventual winner’s policies might affect their investments or business. Some independent analysts agree.
“One can make the argument that the entire stock market, at some level, is affected by elections and outcomes,” Joshua Mitts, a Columbia Law School professor who researches corporate and securities law, told the Associated Press.
“I don’t think they are going to remove the use of polling at all. These markets are probably informed by polls more than anything else. I see them as downstream from polling,” said Brian Schaffner, Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies in the Department of Political Science and Tisch College at Tufts University.
“I think where the markets are useful is in races that aren’t being heavily polled, or where polling is not as reliable. For example, primary polling is often much more error prone, in part because people don’t pay attention to primary candidates until very late, and it’s harder to know who exactly is going to vote in the primaries. In those cases, I suspect that prediction markets probably can do better than polling.”
Schaffner said he did not believe that prediction markets could influence an election.
“I’m pretty doubtful. How many people really are paying attention to prediction markets? I think they are the people who are super interested in politics – the political hobbyists who are following politics all day long,” he said. “These are people who are going to vote and already know who they are going to vote for. The people who don’t pay that much attention to politics, including people who are on the fence or unsure who to vote for, are probably not paying any attention to prediction markets either.”
PoliticsPA will do a weekly check-in on the prediction markets to see what trends may be developing and what, if anything, they are telling us.
What are the prediction markets saying about the key races in Pennsylvania?
as of Wednesday, September 30, 3 p.m. EDT
