September 25 Playbook: The Vulnerables

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Our congressional vulnerability rankings are back. This is the PoliticsPA Playbook. 

? TGIF. 39 days until the midterms, but who’s counting?

? Your Morning Pick Me Up. Let’s Dance. The Ramones

PA Weather
☀  Zelienople | Sunny, 70
☀  Gettysburg | Sunny, 71
?  Jessup | Mostly Sunny, 73

PA Sports 
⚾  Phillies (87-72) | Milwaukee 1-4 | Fri-Sun vs. Tampa Bay
⚾  Pirates (81-78) | St. Louis 2-1 | Fri-Sun at Detroit
?  Eagles (2-0) | Mon at Chicago
?  Steelers (1-1) | Sun vs. Cincinnati
?  Penn State (3-0) | Sat vs. Wisconsin
?  Pitt (3-0) | Sat vs. Bucknell
?  Temple (1-2) | Fri vs. Army
⚽  Union (10W, 6D, 10L) | Sat vs. Orlando City

?  What We’re Hearing. Sen. John Fetterman is set to close out the Texas Tribune Festival on Saturday with an hourlong conversation with CBS’ Major Garrett about “why he’s charting his own course and what he thinks of the current Democratic Party.”

?  What We’re Seeing. Former Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords’ gun safety group is spending roughly $850,000 in an attack ad against Rep. Rob Bresnahan.

? Tips. PoliticsPA is Pennsylvania’s premier source for nonpartisan political news and analysis. Tips or press releases can be sent to steve@politicspa.com.

The PoliticsPA Playbook is compiled by Steve Ulrich. For the web version, click here. Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here.


1.   Congressional Vulnerability Rankings – Fall 2026

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“It’s been five months since we published our latest PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House. Our rankings have not changed dramatically since April: Four Republican incumbents continue to be playing defense.

Our most vulnerable category — Highly Vulnerable — remains empty, but that’s cold comfort to Republicans, because the four seats in the next category, Vulnerable, are all held by the GOP. 

The seat held by four-term Republican Rep. Scott Perry, remains No. 1, but it’s now in a tie for first with fellow GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Republican Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Brian Fitzpatrick rank third and fourth.” | PoliticsPA

Elsewhere

Fetterman Again is the Only Democrat to Vote Against Condemning Trump’s Iran War. “Despite growing pressure from fellow Democrats over his frequent paeans to conservatives, Sen. John Fetterman again cast a deciding vote Thursday against reining in President Donald Trump’s war on Iran.” | PennLive

Siena Poll: Shapiro 58%, Garrity 38%. “The trend continues. In the latest poll from the Siena University Research Institute, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has a 20-point polling lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity, 58-38%.” | PoliticsPA

New Poll Shows RFK Jr. Is Unpopular Among PA Voters Amid Feud With Shapiro Over Measles. “A large majority of likely Pennsylvania voters dislike Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., according to a poll conducted in the wake of his clash with Gov. Josh Shapiro over the state’s measles outbreak.” | Philadelphia Inquirer

PA-09: Debate Between Meuser and Wallace Likely to be Broadcast, Organizers Say. “The debate between the candidates for Pennsylvania’s 9th Congressional District will take place on Oct. 20. While it is open to the public, the venue reached its 250-person capacity within three hours of registration opening.” | Pottsville Republican & Herald


2.   Fighting Tech’s Influence on Kids Emerges as a Focus For PA Attorney General Dave Sunday

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“Nearly two years into his first term as Pennsylvania’s chief law enforcement officer, a central project of Dave Sunday’s tenure is emerging: trying to rein in social media companies’ influence on children.

The Republican attorney general often stays away from hot-button political issues, but has been notably outspoken on Big Tech. It’s an issue Sunday says is personal for him as a father, and one that observers note is helping him build a political brand.” | Spotlight PA

Elsewhere

Miller vs Maldonado: Candidates for PA Senate District 14 Square Off in Business Matters Debate. “On Thursday, the man who currently has the job and the man who hopes to take it from him squared off in a Business Matters debate hosted by Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Tony Iannelli.” | WFMZ

Unusual 122nd District Race Heats Up. “A rare political matchup is taking shape in Pennsylvania’s 122nd Legislative District, where two Republicans will face off in November, incumbent Republican Doyle Heffley and Penn Forest Township Supervisor Christian Bartulovich, who secured the Democratic nomination through a write-in campaign.” | WOLF

Can Chobani’s $1.2 Billion Plant Stop the Long-Term Decline of PA’s Dairy Industry? “Some say the demand for milk Chobani will create has the potential to put the state’s dairy industry in full-on growth mode for the first time since, by some measures, World War II. 

But there’s a uniquely Pennsylvanian problem here.” | PennLive

New Polls Show Pinsley, Coleman Nearly Even in Key PA Senate Race; Lehigh Valley Dem With Slight Lead in House Race. “New polls show a key Pennsylvania state Senate race in a virtual dead heat and a Democrat narrowly leading in a Lehigh Valley-area state House race — contests that could determine which party controls the state legislature.” | Morning Call


3.  Pennsylvania Starts Voting Under Federal Scrutiny. Here’s What We’re Watching

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“Voters in Pennsylvania have begun casting ballots in the 2026 general election, and they’re doing it under a federal microscope.

It’s not entirely surprising the Trump administration is so focused on Pennsylvania: A lot is at stake.” | Democracy Docket

Elsewhere

A Timeline of Turmoil. “Philly DA Larry Krasner’s uncertain future: How a routine case devolved into controversy.” | Philadelphia Inquirer

State, Federal Lawmakers Rally in Support of Allegheny County Paid Parental Leave Policy. “Allegheny County Executive Sara Innamorato was joined by Democratic state and federal officials Thursday in issuing a call for the county health board to pass Innamorato’s proposed paid parental leave policy next week.” | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

State Representative Chris Rabb on ‘Government and Criminal Justice’ in Pennsylvania, Nationwide. “Chris Rabb, the state representative of Pennsylvania’s 200th district and Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District, visited campus for a dialogue on “Government and Criminal Justice.” Rabb covered topics ranging from the historical injustices that pervade the criminal legal system to the specific pieces of legislation he supports to amend it in Pennsylvania and beyond.” | Swarthmore Phoenix

New Delco Dem Chair Defends Democratic Control of County Government, Including Tax Hikes. “Cheryl Grosso, an IT professional and Newtown Township supervisor, recently spoke with Broad + Liberty about county finances, local governance, and antisemitism.” | Broad + Liberty


4.  What Do You Think?

  • How Harrisburg Can Lower Energy Bills | Andy Tubbs
  • Trump’s Failure to Lead Is Costing America and the World | New York Times
  • Trump’s Fight With the White House Press | Wall Street Journal
  • Pittsburgh’s Sports Malaise Contributes to Its Civic Stagnation | Brandon McGinley 
  • Pittsburgh Regional Transit Woes are Self-Inflicted | Colin McNickle
  • Politicians’ Resistance to Data Centers Shortsighted | Pat Wandling
  • PA Can Assess Civics Knowledge. Disagreement Takes Practice | Liam Julian
  • What South Philly Voters Should Know About the Shapiro-Garrity Tax and Housing Plans | Dean McHugh


5.   You’re Probably Eating Pizza Wrong, According to 2 World-Champion Pizza Makers

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“A pizza does not eat itself. It must be grasped and consumed, ideally by a pizza lover. There are right ways and wrong ways to do this. An incorrect approach might end with a puddle of toppings on a plate, both slice and hopes collapsed. But when the pizza-eating method fits the style, the perfect bite awaits.

Over the years, Tony Gemignani and John Arena, two champion pizza makers who know their way around a pie, have developed a rigorous approach for eating and evaluating pizza that gives each slice its best chance at greatness. Here’s what they recommend.” | Food and Wine


Thank you for starting your day with us.
It’s the last weekend of September. Enjoy.

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